Health care strategic managment

[Sunday 30/8/2009]

We met Dr.Mohamed Rasmy and he advised us to make our goal in the

graduation project : "Health care strategic managment".

He recommended to follow the following steps:

1-Understanding the strategic management Concepts.

2-Understanding the Health Care Field .

3-How to use strategic managment to Support Health Care.

4-Understanding the Forecasting as one of Strategic Management tools.

5-How to use Forecasting techniques to Support Health Care.

Meeting with eng Nedaa and the 1st step in working

On Thursday (20-8-209),
We met eng.Nedaa and she told us to begin with testing different techniques of forecasting on the data we have and find the best technique by any of the different measures like [MAPE] .
=>We are now working on a sample [all the countries over 3 sectors only as a beginning]and applying five methods:
1-the Moving average of order 3
2-single exponential Smoothing,
3-double exponential [Holt Linear],
4-Triple Exponential [Holt Winter]
5-regression Forecasting.
=>We selected the MAPE as our accuracy measure
=>We are facing a problem that the Holt winter and holt linear Methods don't have the same equations in all references
and this results in different solutions and we can't determine which equation is the correct one.
=>We determined to use the XLMiner AddIn in the Excel to be sure of its results about these two methods.

Examine Data

On Previous 2 days we try to examine data by finding its trend ,seasonality component and search on existing programs

Who do that and we found one of them XLMiner add inns on Excel office

we try 2 types of time series forecasting methods on XLMiner

1) Moving Average Method

2) Holt Linear [Double Exponential Smoothing] Method

and now we are waiting for Eng.Amany to arrange meeting to understand how she start here project and what the steps that could help us on our project.

Local Development GP Details

Description:

Forecasting of local development indicators of different sectors.

Names:

1-Abdoul-Rahman Mahmoud Darweesh 20060538
2-Aliaa Yehia Mahmoud Rassem 20060263
3-Yasmine Mohamed Mahmoud El-Sehrawy 20060492

Steps Taken:

1-First we have training (Aliaa & AbdoulRahman) in Local Development Ministry on Decentralization Project and found that the system doesn't have forecasting.
2-Meeting with Eng.Mohamed Esmaiel a consultant in Local development Ministry and ask as to build forecasting for Ministry to help them on decision making.
3-Meeting with Dr.Mohamed Saleh and he advised to get historical data and apply a simple forecasting Method on it as a begining step.
4-We get a book called Egypt's Description by inforamtion 2007 and 2009 having data about all sectors in the ministry but we will start by only the health sector.
5-Getting historical data about Health Sector and trying to extract trend ,seasonal component and applying Holt Linear Method.